Jochen FarwickModell zur Einkommens- und Politikfolgenabschätzung Rindvieh haltender Betriebe in Nordrhein-Westfalen

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A proceeding liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union and the assumed socio-economic conditions in the agricultural sector might lead to a stronger segregation of regional agricultural land-use in the future. On the one hand this leads to a further intensification of agricultural production on favorable locations. On the other hand locations with low yields will be further extensified and farming will in some cases even be abandoned.

The main objective of this thesis is to design a model which enables to estimate and analyze individual farm development strategies and their effects on production and income variables that arise depending on different scenarios.

As a first step essential functions and social interests in an area-wide agricultural land management are identified. This is followed by the characterization of the model showing a multi-functional agricultural land-use. In order to meet social demands of positive external effects of the land-use, an intervention of the government might particularly become necessary in case of changes of land-use or abandoning farming.

The model is developed as a modular concept for an overall operational optimization taking into account the main production techniques of arable as well as grassland farming but also the typical regional livestock production. The used model distinguishes itself by the implementation of optional adaptation of production capacities and factor endowments and in particular, by the explicit illustration of the dairy herd performance trends using an integrated Markov model. The data base used for the individual model calculations represent nine panel farms with different production focus, which were modified following the approach of typical farm structure in four different regions of North Rhine-Westphalia. The results of the different model simulations anticipate an ongoing intensification of production in terms of milk production and land-use on farms with favorable locations. The output has to be seen in correlation with assumed input prices and policy scenarios. Contrary to this, the investigated farms with low yields will show an increasingly divergent development considering the type and intensity of land-use management. Under the given conditions, expected progressive development attempts of specialized dairy farms lead to an increasing demand for high qualitative agricultural land. However, especially farms with comparably extensive livestock farming and low opportunity costs will be given the possibility to participate in agri-environment measures. Location disadvantages as well as low yields can be subsidized by potentially higher direct payments which ensures profitability.

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